• Fairly subdued week for global economic data, with US CPI headlining this week.
• The US CPI is expected to fall 0.2% from 3.4% to 3.2%, which is negative for the USD.
• We expect the AUDUSD to be bearish this week and range from 0.6500 to 0.6638.
• AUDUSD will likely remain heavy this week, with USD data taking the lead. US strength/outperformance will drive the AUDUSD lower primarily this week.
• The risk is that a stronger than expected CPI number (lower CPI) will push down the Aussie closer to key support around 65c.
• US CPI y/y is expected to fall from 3.4% to 3.2%, which is negative for the USD but positive for sooner rate cuts.
• The FOMC minutes are also scheduled for release, but there is no major news to be assessed from them. However, they will be a great gauge of the FED’s opinion on the next rate cut.
• The March dot plots indicate three rate cuts this year. The FOMC chair stated there is no hurry to cut interest rates whilst the US economy is resilient and strong.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 8th April 2024 – Fri 12th April 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 10:30pm | CPI m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| CPI y/y | US | 3.4% | 3.2% | ||
| Thur | 4:00am | FOMC Meeting Minutes | US | N/A | N/A |
| 10:30pm | Core PPI m/m | US | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| PPI m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.6% | ||
| Unemployment Claims | US | 217K | 221K | ||
| Sat | 12:00am | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 79.0 | 79.4 |
Source: forexfactory.com