WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

• Heavy week this week with US CPI/PPI/Retail Sales & AU Employment!
• US CPI expected @ 2.6% y/y (prev 2.4%), AU employment chg +21k and un-emp rate 4.1%.
• AUDUSD to continue consolidating with bullish bias, pivoting between 0.6506 and 0.6616

• RBA kept rates on HOLD @ 3.85%!?

• Trump smashed financial markets as he started applying high tariffs on key trading partners, Canada, the EU & Mexico.

• AUD expected to hover between 65c & 66c this week.

• USD data and AU employment mainly drive AUD.

• US CPI expected @ 2.6% y/y (prev 2.4%), +ve for the USD, -ve for AUD.

• AU Employment change expected @ +21K (prev -2.5K), with the unemployment rate staying the same @ 4.1%.

• Tariffs will still be the key theme this week and the primary driver of FX flows.

• Will Trump cause more chaos this week???

Economic Calendar: Mon 14th July 2025 – Friday 18th July 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US)
Day Time(AEST) Event Country Forecast Previous
Tues 10:30pm CPI m/m US 0.3% 0.1%
    CPI y/y US 2.6% 2.4%
Wed 10:30pm PPI m/m US 0.3% 0.1%
Thur 11:30am Employment Change AU 21.0K -2.5K
    Unemployment Rate AU 4.1% 4.1%
  10:30pm Retail Sales m/m US 0.2% -0.9%
    Unemployment Claims US 234K 227K

Source: forexfactory.com

CurrenCWEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK