Summary
• HUGE week in markets with HIGH impact events in both AU & US markets.
• AU = RBA Cash Rate & employment numbers, US CPI, PPI & Retail Sales to be released.
• AUDUSD to continue consolidating (ranging), most likely pivoting between 0.6466 – 0.6557.
• AUDUSD has been range-bound between 64c-66c since April, failing to break major support & resistance.
• With the RBA Cash rate headlining on Tuesday, markets are pricing in almost a 100% chance of a rate cut to 3.6% (prev 3.85%). With last meeting’s surprise call to hold, will the RBA shock us again this time?
• With a rate cut almost fully priced, the market is unlikely to move much; however, another shock hold announcement will definitely cause rifts!
• Employment numbers releasing in AU, expected to be strong, unemployment rate down 4.2% (prev 4.3%) and employment change 25.3K (prev 2.0k).
• Another huge headliner will be US CPI, expected @ 2.8% y/y (prev 2.7%), which might lead to a stronger USD, weaker AUD.
• Expect AUDUSD to stay steadfast this week unless there’s a major deviation from the data!
| Economic Calendar: Mon 11th Aug 2025 – Friday 15th August 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time(AEST) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 2:30pm | Cash Rate / RBA Rate Statement | AU | 3.60% | 3.85% |
| 3:30pm | RBA Press Conference | AU | N/A | N/A | |
| 10:30pm | CPI m/m | US | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| CPI y/y | US | 2.8% | 2.7% | ||
| Wed | 11:30am | Wage Price Index q/q | AU | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Thurs | 11:30am | Employment Change | AU | 25.3K | 2.0K |
| Unemployment Rate | AU | 4.2% | 4.3% | ||
| 10:30pm | PPI m/m | US | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| Unemployment Claims | US | 220K | 226K | ||
| Fri | 10:30pm | Retail Sales m/m | US | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Sat | 12:00am | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 62.2 | 61.7 |
Source: forexfactory.com