WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

• US Govt shutdown still on. Governor speeches, AU employment & US PPI/Retail Sales this week.
• AU emp change +20K, unemp rate @ 4.2%. US PPI @ 0.3% m/m & Retail Sales @ 0.4% m/m.
• AUDUSD now looking bearish from last week, most likely pivoting between 0.6418 – 0.6573

• US GOVERNMENT IS STILL IN SHUTDOWN!

• AUDUSD had a huge bearish move last week, breaking key support to an overall bearish direction, now floating around 65c.

• Trump also made announcements on “100% tariffs on China”, which appears to be making headlines.

• US Govt still in shutdown, which is causing huge chaos in the US markets, resulting in a delay in releasing economic data.

• This means there’s uncertainty around the USD direction due to a lack of timely data.

• AU employment looking positive, with +20K emp change and unemployment rate @ 4.2% (-0.1%).

• US PPI expected @ 0.3% m/m and retail sales @ 0.4% m/m, although this is unlikely to move the needle.

Economic Calendar: Mon 13th October 2025 – Friday 17th October 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US)
Day Time(AEST) Event Country Forecast Previous
Wed 3:20am Fed Chair Powell Speaks USD N/A N/A
Thurs 6:45am RBA Gov Bullock Speaks AUD N/A N/A
  11:30am Employment Change AUD 20.0K -5.4K
    Unemployment Rate AUD 4.3% 4.2%
Thurs Tentative Core PPI m/m USD 0.3% -0.1%
  Tentative Core Retail Sales m/m USD 0.3% 0.7%
  Tentative PPI m/m USD 0.3% -0.1%
  Tentative Retail Sales m/m USD 0.4% 0.6%
  Tentative Unemployment Claims USD TBA TBA

Source: forexfactory.com

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