WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

• HUGE week in markets with AU RBA rate & US employment headlining this week!
• AU RBA expected up @ 3.85% (prev 3.6%), US emp chg +67K & unemp rate @ 4.4% (same).
• AUDUSD is still expected to be a little bullish this week, pivoting between 0.6875& 0.7068.

• The last 2 weeks have been importer heaven with AUDUSD touching 71c before dropping under 70c.

• We’re starting to see a lot of clients look to book SPOT trades and or hedge their FX risk given the high levels, last seen on Jan 2023!

• We have a fairly decent week for market data with the AUD RBA cash rate announcement & US employment numbers being released.

• RBA cash rate expected to rise to 3.85% (~70% chance priced in), from 3.60%. This could potentially see the AUD rise past 70c.

• Watch the RBA press conference for forward guidance, as this will most likely move the AUD.

• US employment expected to have a +ve change of 67K (prev 50K) with the unemployment rate remaining the same @ 4.4%.

Economic Calendar: Mon 2nd February 2026 – Friday 6th February 2026 (High Impact) (AU/US)
Day Time(AEST) Event Country Forecast Previous
Tues 2:00am ISM Manufacturing PMI US 48.5 47.9
  2:30pm Cash Rate / Statement AU 3.85% 3.60%
  3:30pm RBA Press Conference AU N/A N/A
Wed 2:00am JOLTS Job Openings US 7.21M 7.15M
Thurs 12:15am ADP Non-Farm Employment Change US 48K 41K
  2:00am ISM Services PMI US 53.6 54.4
Fri 12:30am Unemployment Claims US 213K 209K
  9:30am RBA Gov Bullock Speaks AU N/A N/A
Sat 12:30am Non-Farm Employment Change US 67K 50K
    Unemployment Rate US 4.4% 4.4%
    Average Hourly Earnings m/m US 0.3% 0.3%

Source: forexfactory.com

CurrenCWEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK