Weekly FX Update
17 August 2026
AUD Holds Above 70c as the Focus Shifts to Jobs and the Fed
The Australian dollar starts the week in a relatively strong position, trading around US$0.708–0.709 after gaining roughly 1.5% over the past month. This follows last week’s RBA decision to keep the cash rate at 4.35%, with the Bank appearing to narrow the risk of further rate increases.
This week, the focus shifts from interest-rate decisions to the data behind them. Australia’s wages and employment figures will test the domestic outlook, while the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes will give markets a closer look at the debate inside the Fed.
For the AUD, that creates an interesting combination: domestic conditions remain reasonably supportive, while softer recent US data has taken some momentum away from the US dollar. MUFG described the recent theme as a “softer run of US data” weighing on the USD.
In simple terms: the AUD has finally become comfortable above 70 cents. Now Australian jobs and the Fed get to decide whether it can stay there.
What Is Driving Markets
- AUD remains firm: AUD/USD was around 0.7086 over the weekend, versus roughly 0.697 a month ago.
- RBA stays at 4.35%: last week’s decision reduced the immediate risk of another hike, although Australian wages and employment remain important for the inflation outlook.
- Fed minutes are the major global FX event: markets will examine how divided policymakers were at the July meeting, where the Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%.
· Oil is rising again: WTI gained about 4% last week, keeping energy-driven inflation risk in the background.
Key Exchange Rates
| Currency Pair | Latest Verified Level | ||||||||||||
| AUD/USD | 0.7086 market / 0.7068 RBA reference | ||||||||||||
| AUD/EUR | 0.6124 | ||||||||||||
| AUD/GBP | 0.5235 | ||||||||||||
| AUD/JPY | 112.57 | ||||||||||||
| AUD/CNY | 4.7664 | ||||||||||||
| AUD/NZD | 1.2043 |
Key Economic Events This Week (Sydney Time)
| Date | Sydney time | Event | FX significance |
| Mon 17 Aug | 9:50am | Japan Q2 GDP | BoJ outlook and JPY |
| Mon 17 Aug | Asian session | China July activity data | China growth outlook; important for AUD |
| Tue 18 Aug | U.S. session | U.S. housing starts / permits | Secondary USD growth indicators |
| Wed 19 Aug | 11:30am | Australia Q2 Wage Price Index | Major RBA/AUD inflation input |
| Wed 19 Aug | 4:00pm | UK July CPI | Major GBP/BoE event |
| Thu 20 Aug | 4:00am | FOMC July meeting minutes | Major USD event |
| Thu 20 Aug | 11:30am | Australia July Labour Force | Principal AUD event of the week |
| Thu 20 Aug | 10:30pm | U.S. initial jobless claims / Philadelphia Fed | USD labour and activity indicators |
| Fri 21 Aug | Asian session | Japan July CPI | BoJ policy expectations |
| Fri 21 Aug | European session | Eurozone / UK flash PMIs | EUR and GBP growth assessment |
| Fri 21 Aug | Late Sydney evening | U.S. flash PMIs | USD and global-growth expectations |
AUD Outlook
The near-term AUD picture remains constructive, but this week’s Australian data creates meaningful two-way risk.
Strong wage growth and another resilient employment report could reinforce expectations that the RBA will keep rates at 4.35% for longer, providing further support to the AUD. Conversely, softer domestic data could encourage markets to price an eventual easing cycle more aggressively.
On the USD side, the Fed minutes matter because the July decision revealed disagreement within the FOMC. Markets currently assign only around a 30% probability of a September rate increase, according to the FT.
Indicative AUD/USD range this week: 0.7000–0.7150.
A sustained move above 0.7100 would put the AUD back near the upper end of its recent range, while 0.7000 remains the obvious psychological support area.
Quick Take
AUD: Firm around 0.708 and knocking on 71c
RBA: On hold at 4.35%; wages and jobs now matter
USD: Fed minutes are the week’s major global catalyst
Oil: Back above US$82 for WTI
Iron ore: Softer around US$95/t