WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

• AU RBA decision & US Non-Farm payroll (labour) the key headliners this week.
• RBA expected to keep cash rate @ 3.60%, US unemployment rate same @ 4.3%.
• AUDUSD still in consolidation (bullish bias), pivoting between 0.6503 & 0.6603.

• HUGE week in markets for both AU & US.

• AUDUSD hovering around mid 65c.

• RBA live cash rate decision coming up on Tuesday (Melb Cup), widely expected to keep rates same @ 3.60%, after last week’s HOT CPI reading of 3.6% y/y.

• This means we’re unlikely to see any rate cuts in AU for this year, as economists now revise their forecasts of a rate cut possibly after H2 2026. Inflation needs to get back within 2-3% target range.

• We also have the US labour figures being released, albeit still during the government shutdown.

• Non-Farm change expected @ +50K (prev 22K) with an unemployment rate same @ 4.3%. Any material change from these figures will likely move the USD.

• HUGE moves expected this week, WATCH OUT!

Economic Calendar: Mon 3rd November 2025 – Friday 7th November 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US)
Day Time(AEST) Event Country Forecast Previous
Tues 2:00am ISM Manufacturing PMI US 49.4 49.1
  2:30pm Cash Rate / RBA Police Statement AU 3.60% 3.60%
    RBA Press Conference AU N/A N/A
Wed Tentative JOLTS Job Openings US 7.21M 7.23M
Thur 12:15am ADP Non-Farm Employment Change US 28K -32K
  2:00am ISM Services PMI US 50.8 50.0
Fri Tentative Unemployment Claims US TBA TBA
Sat Tentative Average Hourly Earnings m/m US TBA TBA
  Tentative Core PCE Price Index m/m US TBA TBA
  Tentative Non-Farm Employment Change US 50.0K 22K
  Tentative Unemployment Rate US 4.3% 4.3%

Source: forexfactory.com

CurrenCWEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK