WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

• AU employment & US CPI/PPI/Retail Sales are the key headliners this week.
• AU unemployment rate @ 4.4% (prev 4.5%), US CPI @ 3% y/y (prev 3.1%).
• AUDUSD still in consolidation (bullish bias), pivoting between 0.6448 & 0.6552.

• AUDUSD back at the 65c handle.

• Heavy week this week for AU & US data.

• AU employment the key headliner, with emp change expected @ 20.3K, however a lower unemployment rate @ 4.4% (prev 4.5%), overall this is +ve for AUD.

• US CPI y/y expected @ 3% (prev 3.1%), -ve for USD.

• US also has PPI m/m & Retail sales m/m expected @ 0.2% (prev 0.2%) & -0.5% (prev 0.7%) – more -ve tone for USD.

• Last week, we saw most AUD pairs fall, with USD rising.

• The US govt shutdown is still in place, the longest govt shutdown IN HISTORY.

• Will we see the AUD hit 66c this week?

Economic Calendar: Mon 10th November 2025 – Friday 14th November 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US)
Day Time(AEST) Event Country Forecast Previous
Thur 11:30am Employment Change AU 20.3K 14.9K
    Unemployment Rate AU 4.4% 4.5%
Fri Tentative Core CPI m/m AU 0.3% 0.2%
    CPI m/m AU 0.2% 0.3%
    CPI y/y AU 3% 3.1%
    Unemployment Claims AU 218K 223.0K
Sat Tentative Core PPI m/m AU 0.5% -0.1%
    Core Retail Sales m/m AU 0.4% 0.7%
    PPI m/m AU 0.2% 0.2%
    Retail Sales m/m AU -0.5% 0.7%

Source: forexfactory.com

CurrenCWEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK