WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

• AU CPI & US PPI/Retail sales/Core PCE Index are the key headliners this week.
• AU CPI expected @ 3.3% (prev 3.5%) & US Core PCE Index expected @ 0.2% (prev 0.2%).
• AUDUSD still in consolidation (bearish bias), pivoting between 0.6404 & 0.6520.

• AUDUSD RANGING BETWEEN 64c & 65c.

• AUD over the last month has been on a slightly bearish tilt, but still overall in consolidation on the higher timeframes.

• Currently sitting at a key support level of 0.6430.

• We have AU CPI m/m released, expected 3.3% (prev 3.5%), which is -ve for the AUD, especially after the sudden spike higher in the last reading.

• US has PPI m/m expected @ 0.5%, Retail sales m/m expected @ 0.3% & Core PCE index expected @ 0.2% m/m. These are not known to move the market significantly, but they are a strong indicator of US inflation & spending.

• As we head into the last week of November, we can expect to see some EOM risk adjustments from major institutions, which could see some interesting moves.

Economic Calendar: Mon 24th November 2025 – Friday 28th November 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US)
Day Time(AEST) Event Country Forecast Previous
Wed 12:30am PPI m/m US 0.5% -0.1%
    Retail Sales m/m US 0.3% 0.6%
  11:30am CPI y/y AU 3.3% 3.5%
Thurs 12:30am Unemployment Claims US TBA 220K
    Prelim GDP q/q US TBA TBA
    Core PCE Price Index m/m US 0.2% 0.2%

Source: forexfactory.com

CurrenCWEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK