WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

• Heavy week – AU RBA Cash Rate, Employment & US FOMC rate announcements!
• RBA Cash rate @3.6% (same) + Unemp rate @4.4% (prev 4.3%), Fed rate @3.75% (prev 4%).
• AUDUSD still in bullish consolidation (broke resistance), pivoting between 0.6564 & 0.6679

• AUDUSD right back @ 66c handle!

• We have a heavy data week this week for both the AU & US markets.

• AU RBA cash rate announcement & employment figures. Cash rate expected @ 3.60% (no change). Employment change @ 20.3K (prev 42.2K) @ unemployment rate @ 4.3% (prev 4.2%). This is more -ve for the AUD than +ve. No change, may result in the AUD shoot higher.

• US FOMC/Fed rate announcement & minor employment figures. Fed funds rate to drop to 3.75% (prev 4%), this is -ve for the USD. No change may result in the USD shooting higher.

• As we head towards the EOY, expect more profit taking from larger institutions as they also conduct risk adjustments, meaning more than normal volatility & big moves during the next 2 weeks.

• STAY ALERT!

Economic Calendar: Mon 8th December 2025 – Friday 12th December 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US)
Day Time(AEST) Event Country Forecast Previous
Tues 2:30pm Cash Rate / RBA Statement AU 3.60% 3.60%
  3:30pm RBA Press Conference AU N/A N/A
Wed Tenative ADP Weekly Employment Change US TBA -13.5K
  2:00am JOLTS Job Openings US 7.14M 7.23M
  12:30am Employment Cost Index q/q US 0.9% 0.9%
  6:00am Federal Funds Rate / FOMC Statement US 3.75% 4.00%
  6:30am FOMC Press Conference US N/A N/A
Thurs 11:30am Employment Change AU 20.3K 42.2K
    Unemployment Rate AU 4.4% 4.3%
  12:30am Unemployment Claims US 221K 191K

Source: forexfactory.com

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