WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

• Heavy week for the US market, no major AU data. Key headliners: US CPI & Employment!
• US CPI expected (TBA), US emp change expected @ +50K & unemp rate @ 4.5% (prev 4.4%).
• AUDUSD still in bullish consolidation (broke resistance), pivoting between 0.6609 & 0.6687.

• RATE CUT, RATE HIKE??

• The RBA announced last week that a rate hike is more likely to happen in 2026 than a rate cut, saw AUDUSD shoot up to 66.5c.

• This is potentially positive news for the AUD as it will invite increased capital flows into the AUD, driving the AUD higher in 2026.

• However, in the absence of AU data, we have the US market headlining the economic data this week.

• US CPI is expected, however, TBA at the time of writing, previous =3.0%.

• US employment expected @ +50K change and unemployment rate @ 4.5% (prev 4.4%), this is overall -ve for the USD.

• USD to dominate the charts this week!

Economic Calendar: Mon 15th December 2025 – Friday 19th December 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US)
Day Time(AEST) Event Country Forecast Previous
Wed Tentative ADP Weekly Employment Change US TBA 4.8K
  12:30am Average Hourly Earnings m/m US 0.3% 0.2%
    Core Retail Sales m/m US 0.2% 0.3%
    Non-Farm Employment Change US 50K 119K
    Retail Sales m/m US 0.2% 0.2%
    Unemployment Rate US 4.5% 4.4%
  1:45am Flash Manufacturing PMI US 52.3 52.2
    Flash Services PMI US 54.0 54.1
Fri 12:30am CPI y/y US TBA 3.0%
    Unemployment Claims US 224K 236K

Source: forexfactory.com

CurrenCWEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK