WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

• AU employment and the US Core PCE Index are the key headliners this week.
• AU Emp change +20.1K (prev +65.2K), unemp rate 4.2% (prev 4.1%).
• AUDUSD is still expected to be a little bullish this week, pivoting between 0.6995 & 0.7144.

• AUDUSD STILL ABOVE 70c!

• This week we have the AU Wage Price Index, AU employment, FOMC minutes & US Core PCE Index as the main economic events this week.

• AU employment expected @ +20.1K (prev +65.2K) with the unemployment rate set to increase to 4.2% (prev 4.1%). Overall, this is more negative for the AUD, so we may see a move to the downside.

• US FOMC minutes are likely to show the commentary from the previous decision, but can also include forward guidance, which will be key for the USD.

• US Core PCE index expected @ 0.3% m/m (prev 0.2%), although unlikely to move the needle, does provide insights into US inflation.

• With the AUD expected to continue its climb after taking a short break, this might be something for importers to monitor closely!

Economic Calendar: Mon 16th February 2026 – Friday 20th February 2026 (High Impact) (AU/US)
Day Time(AEST) Event Country Forecast Previous
Wed 11:30am Wage Price Index q/q US 0.8% 0.8%
Thurs 6:00am FOMC Meeting Minutes US N/A N/A
  11:30am Employment Change AU 20.1K 65.2K
    Unemployment Rate AU 4.2% 4.1%
Fri 12:30am Unemployment Claims US 229K 227K
Sat 12:30am Advance GDP q/q US 2.8% 4.4%
    Core PCE Price Index m/m US 0.3% 0.2%
  1:45am Flash Manufacturing PMI US 52.1 52.4
    Flash Services PMI US 52.8 52.7

Source: forexfactory.com

CurrenCWEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK