WEEKLY CURRENCY OUTLOOK

• This week, we have multiple high-impact impact data releases in the AU & US markets.
• The AUDUSD has fallen 5% since mid-July, but we may see some consolidation now.
• Expecting the AUDUSD to range between 0.6450 and 0.6580 this week on technical analysis.

• USD is expected to consolidate this week after AUDUSD nosediving almost 5% and the USD (DXY) gaining 3% strength since mid-July.
• US retail sales are expected to be slightly strong, demonstrating the resilience of consumer spending in a recessionary environment.
• Although the US inflation rate is dropping significantly, the war is not over and has a fair way to reach target inflation.
• July’s FOMC meeting minutes are likely to show the market’s push towards another potential rate hike, further indicating the cycle has not peaked.
• Although the market is hesitant to believe that more tightening is required.
• Locally, AUD/USD is subject to wage price index & monetary policy minutes which may indicate whether the AU rate cycle has definitely peaked or commentary on when they’re expecting to start cutting.
• AUD/USD can potentially test its recent low of 0.6458.