Weekly FX Update
29 June 2026
From Headlines to Fundamentals
After several weeks dominated by geopolitical tensions and oil price swings, markets are beginning to refocus on the economy itself.
The ceasefire in the Middle East has eased immediate supply concerns, oil prices have stabilised, and investors are once again paying closer attention to inflation, employment and central bank policy. This week, the spotlight shifts to the US employment report, while the ECB’s Sintra Forum may provide fresh clues on the outlook for global interest rates.
Think of it this way: the market has stopped checking the smoke alarm every five minutes and is now looking at the economic dashboard.
What’s Driving Markets This Week
- US jobs data is the week’s biggest event. Strong payrolls could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates higher for longer.
- The Australian dollar remains under pressure. AUD/USD finished last week around 0.689, its weakest level in several weeks.
- The RBA remains cautious. The Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% in June while signalling that another increase remains possible if inflation stays elevated.
What’s Happening
The stronger US dollar continues to dominate currency markets as investors expect US interest rates to remain relatively high. That has made it more difficult for the Australian dollar to gain momentum despite generally supportive commodity prices.
Looking ahead, markets will be watching this week’s US employment figures, manufacturing surveys and central-bank commentary for clues about the next move in global interest rates.
Key Exchange Rates (approx.)
| Pair | Latest Level* | |||||||||||||
| AUD/USD | 0.689 | |||||||||||||
| AUD/EUR | 0.606 | |||||||||||||
| AUD/GBP | 0.519 | |||||||||||||
| AUD/JPY | 111.8 | |||||||||||||
| AUD/CNH | 4.74 | |||||||||||||
| AUD/NZD | 1.18 | |||||||||||||
Commodities Snapshot
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Key Economic Events This Week (Sydney Time)
| Day | Time | Event | Why it matters |
| Monday, 29 June | Morning | China official PMIs | Important read on Chinese manufacturing and demand; direct relevance for AUD. |
| Tuesday, 30 June | 11:30am | RBA meeting minutes | Markets will look for the Board’s inflation, wages and growth assessment. |
| Tuesday, 30 June | Late evening | Eurozone CPI | Important for ECB-rate expectations and EUR direction. |
| Wednesday, 1 July | Morning | China Caixin manufacturing PMI | Further indication of activity in China’s private-sector manufacturing base. |
| Wednesday, 1 July | 11:30am | Australia monthly CPI data | Key input into expectations for the next RBA decision. |
| Wednesday, 1 July | Late evening | U.S. ADP employment and ISM manufacturing | Early guide to the U.S. labour market and economic momentum. |
| Thursday, 2 July | 10:30pm | U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate | The major FX event of the week; likely to move USD pairs sharply. |
| Friday, 3 July | All day | U.S. Independence Day market closure | Thin liquidity conditions may amplify moves late in the week. |
AUD Outlook
The AUD begins the week with a cautious bias. The currency is trading below the psychologically important 0.70 level against the USD and will need supportive domestic or Chinese data to regain momentum.
The most constructive scenario for the AUD would be a stronger Chinese PMI result, a measured tone in the RBA minutes, and softer US employment data. That combination could reduce support for the USD and allow AUD/USD to recover.
The less favourable scenario would be weak China data followed by another strong US jobs report. This would reinforce the existing “higher-for-longer” US interest-rate narrative and could keep the AUD under pressure.
For businesses with upcoming USD payments, Thursday night is the principal event-risk window. For EUR, GBP, NZD and JPY requirements, movements in broader USD sentiment and risk appetite will remain important throughout the week.
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Expected AUD/USD trading range this week:
0.685 – 0.695
Quick Take
AUD-positive scenario: China activity improves, RBA minutes remain firm on inflation, and US jobs data softens enough to reduce Fed tightening expectations.
AUD-negative scenario: China data disappoints, US payrolls and wages remain strong, and the USD extends its recent rally.
This week’s reminder: The first week of a new quarter often starts calmly — right up until a payrolls number decides it has other plans.
✅ US jobs data is the week’s biggest market mover.
✅ AUD remains under pressure below 0.69.
✅ Central-bank commentary returns to centre stage.