• Key headliners for this week include AU CPI & US PCE Index.
• AU CPI is expected to increase to 3.6% y/y (+0.2%), and the US PCE Index will also increase by the same.
• We expect the AUDUSD to experience significant volatility and range from 0.6560 to 0.6599.
• US has a few high-impact events, which could certainly provide additional support to the USD this week, potentially rebounding from last week.
• PCE inflation could provide major support for US interest rates and push the USD higher.
• Market is currently pricing a 20% chance of a 0.25% cut in May.
• The significant increase in US equity markets also drives a stronger USD, as strong foreign capital inflows are injected into the economy.
• AUDUSD is expected to see some negative momentum this week on the back of a potentially stronger USD.
• All eyes are on AU CPI, which is expected to increase from last quarter, which is positive for USD as US interest rates maintain the ‘higher for longer rhetoric’.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 19th February 2024 – Fri 23rd February 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 12:30am | Durable Goods Orders m/m | US | -4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2:00am | CB Consumer Confidence | US | 114.8 | 114.8 | |
| 11:30am | CPI y/y | AU | 3.6% | 3.4% | |
| Thur | 12:30am | Prelim GDP q/q | US | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Fri | 12:30am | Core PCE Price Index m/m | US | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Unemployment Claims | US | 209K | 201K | ||
| Sat | 2:00am | ISM Manufacturing PMI | US | 49.5 | 49.1 |
| Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 79.6 | 79.6 | ||
Source: forexfactory.com