• Huge week in US data, key headliners include AU GDP & US Non-farm payrolls
• AU GDP to expand 0.3% q/q, a drop in US employment and no change in the unemployment rate
• We expect the AUDUSD to experience significant volatility and range from 0.6485 to 0.6565
• Heavy week for the AUD/USD pair with key data most likely significantly impacting the price.
• A strong GDP print will boost the AUD/USD and vice versa, however, given majority of news is USD-based, USD will be driving the direction of the pair this week primarily.
• Low jobless claims suggest payrolls could be strong, a positive for USD.
• US political events regarding the election will likely not impact the USD at this stage.
• Fed Chair Powell has two speeches this week, which will be heavily scrutinised as traders seek hidden gems regarding the next rate cut.
• With a huge week in US equities this week (due to reporting season), this could impact flows into the US, adding strength to the USD.
| Economic Calendar: Mon 4th March 2024 – 9th March 2024 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 2:00am | ISM Services PMI | US | 52.9 | 53.4 |
| 11:30am | GDP q/q | AU | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| Thur | 12:15am | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 145K | 107K |
| 2:00am | Fed Chair Powell Testifies | US | N/A | N/A | |
| JOLTS Job Openings | US | 8.90M | 9.03M | ||
| Fri | 12:30am | Unemployment Claims | US | 212K | 215K |
| 2:00am | Fed Chair Powell Testifies | US | N/A | N/A | |
| Sat | 12:30am | Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 190K | 353K |
| Unemployment Rate | US | 3.7% | 3.7% | ||
Source: forexfactory.com