• RBA announcement, Wage Price Index & AU employment are the key headliners this week for AU!
• RBA expected to DROP to 4.1% (-0.25%), WPI expected the same, and AU unemployment rate to 4.1%.
• AUDUSD expected to strengthen on AU data, pivoting between 0.6267 & 0.6403.
• It is widely expected for the RBA to begin its monetary policy easing cycle today with a 25bp cut to 4.10%.
• AUDUSD is unlikely to change if the above occurs; however, no change could cause the AUD to shoot higher.
• We also have AU employment, which could see a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4% to 4.1% (-ve for AUD) with a lower-than-usual employment change (-ve for AUD).
• The US market is fairly quiet this week, with a bank holiday on Tuesday and FOMC minutes being released on Thursday (unlikely to impact markets significantly).
• Trump’s actions are still causing tremors in the global markets, but we have yet to see the full effects of his decisions.
• Hoping for some positivity for the AUD from today!
| Economic Calendar: Mon 17th February 2025 – Fri 21st February 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time (AEDT) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | All day | Bank Holiday | US | N/A | N/A |
| 2:30pm | Cash Rate / Statement | AU | 4.10% | 4.35% | |
| Wed | 11:30am | Wage Price Index q/q | AU | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Thur | 6:00am | FOMC Meeting Minutes | US | N/A | N/A |
| 11:30am | Employment Change | AU | 19.7K | 56.3K | |
| Unemployment Rate | AU | 4.1% | 4.0% | ||
| Fri | 12:30am | Unemployment Claims | US | 214K | 213K |
| 9:30am | RBA Gov Bullock Speaks | AU | N/A | N/A | |
| Sat | 1:45am | Flash Manufacturing PMI | US | 51.2 | 51.2 |
| Flash Manufacturing PMI | US | 53.2 | 52.9 | ||
Source: forexfactory.com