• Huge data-driven week for both AU & US markets, US CPI & AU Employment headlining!
• US CPI to remain 2.4% y/y, AU employment +20.9k change & 4.1% unemployment rate.
• AUDUSD is expected to continue its consolidation from April, pivoting between 0.6347 and 0.6491.
• AUD is expected to hover around the 64c mark this week, mainly due to US influences rather than local support.
• AU employment may provide some support this week; however, it is most likely short-lived.
• AU employment expected +20.9k with unemployment rate same @ 4.1% – overall a positive impact on AUD.
• AU WPI to come in @ 0.8% q/q which is healthy, so +ve again for the AUD.
• US CPI is the main headliner this week, with an expected 2.4% y/y figure, remaining the same. Any change to this could cause a sudden spike in the market.
• With the RBA meeting coming up next week, with an almost certain rate cut, will the employment numbers support a 25pt or 50pt cut?
| Economic Calendar: Mon 12th May 2025 – Friday 16th May 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time(AEST) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 10:30pm | CPI m/m | US | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| CPI y/y | US | 2.4% | 2.4% | ||
| Wed | 11:30am | Wage Price Index q/q (WPI) | AU | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Thur | 11:30am | Employment Change | AU | 20.9K | 32.2K |
| Unemployment Rate | AU | 4.1% | 4.1% | ||
| 10:30pm | PPI m/m | US | 0.2% | -0.4% | |
| Retail Sales m/m | US | 0.0% | 1.4% | ||
| Unemployment Claims | US | 229K | 228K | ||
| 10:40pm | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | US | N/A | N/A | |
| Sat | 12:00am | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | US | 53.1 | 52.2 |
| Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | US | TBA | 6.5% | ||
Source: forexfactory.com