• It’s RBA time! The only main event in AU is flash manufacturing services/PMI in the US market.
• RBA expected to DROP the rate to 3.85% from 4.10% – this is widely expected.
• AUDUSD is expected to continue its consolidation this month, pivoting between 0.6340 and 0.6484.
• AUD expected to head towards the 63c mark this week, technically towards the moving averages.
• The USD is taking charge and leading in strength, which will weaken the AUD over time.
• RBA expected to cut cash rate by 25bps to 3.85%, which is widely anticipated and already priced in.
• This is unlikely to move the AUDUSD needle; however, a surprise 50bps cut could see a further drop in the AUD.
• In the US, we have unemployment claims and Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs, but these events are usually unlikely to move the market. However, they indicate the strength of the US economy over the short/medium term.
• With the AUD expected to fall, importers might want to start considering hedging to lock in rates for the coming months!
| Economic Calendar: Mon 19th May 2025 – Friday 23rd May 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time(AEST) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 2:30pm | Cash Rate | AU | 3.85% | 4.10% |
| RBA Monetary Policy Statement | AU | N/A | N/A | ||
| RBA Rate Statement | AU | N/A | N/A | ||
| Thur | 10:30pm | Unemployment Claims | US | 227K | 229K |
| 11:45pm | Flash Manufacturing PMI | US | 49.9 | 50.2 | |
| Flash Services PMI | US | 50.7 | 50.8 | ||
Source: forexfactory.com