• US Non-farm payroll is the key headliner this week, with no major events in the AU market.
• Emp Chg expected @ +120k (prev +139K) & unemp rate expected @ 4.3% (prev 4.2%)
• AUDUSD to continue consolidating with bullish bias, pivoting between 0.6413 and 0.6604.
• AUDUSD will be mainly driven by USD trade developments this week, due to the lack of AU data.
• The war in the Middle East between Iran & Israel has fallen into the background, after Trump negotiated a mutual ceasefire agreement with both sides, avoiding severe impact on the oil markets.
• AUDUSD appears to gain bullish momentum, looking to head back towards 66c on USD weakness.
• Only the UK & China have so far agreed to trade frameworks with the US.
• US NFP headlining this week, with employment change of +120K (prev +139K) and unemployment rate @ 4.3% (prev 4.2%) – more -ve for USD.
• It seems like the worst case with regards to the war has now been avoided!
• Will we see some uplift for the AUD?
| Economic Calendar: Mon 30th June 2025 – Friday 4th July 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time(AEST) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Tues | 11:30pm | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | US | N/A | N/A |
| Wed | 12:00am | ISM Manufacturing PMI | US | 48.8 | 48.5 |
| JOLTS Job Openings | US | 7.45M | 7.39M | ||
| 10:15pm | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 105K | 37K | |
| Thur | 10:30pm | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 120K | 139K | ||
| Unemployment Rate | US | 4.3% | 4.2% | ||
| Fri | 12:00am | ISM Services PMI | US | 50.8 | 49.9 |
Source: forexfactory.com