• HUGE week this week with multiple high-impact events in AU & US.
• AU CPI @ 2.1% y/y, Fed keep rates 4.50% & US change/unemp rate @ +108K & 4.2%.
• AUDUSD to continue consolidating with bullish bias, pivoting between 0.6499 – 0.6626.
- AUD is expected to hover around 65c/66c this week.
- US & EU have reached a trade deal including 15% tariffs, supporting the USD.
- AUD likely to take cues from data-heavy week, including CPI, Fed funds & US Labour figures.
- AU CPI expected at 2.1% y/y (prev. 2.1%), with little impact expected from this, given it is already priced in.
- The Fed is expected to keep rates on hold at 4.50%. Any surprise will significantly impact markets!
- US NFP expected with a +108K change in jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2% (prev. 4.1%), which is not great for the US economy.
- Trade deals remain the key theme this week.
Will we see AUD touch 66c this week!?!?!
| Economic Calendar: Mon 28th July 2025 – Friday 1st August 2025 (High Impact) (AU/US) | |||||
| Day | Time(AEST) | Event | Country | Forecast | Previous |
| Wed | 12:00am | JOLTS Job Openings | US | 7.49M | 7.77M |
| 11:30am | CPI y/y | AU | 2.1% | 2.1% | |
| 10:15pm | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 82K | -33K | |
| 10:30pm | Advance GDP q/q | US | 2.4% | -0.5% | |
| Thurs | 4:00am | Federal Funds Rate / Statement | US | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| 4:30am | FOMC Press Conference | US | N/A | N/A | |
| 10:30pm | Core PCE Price Index m/m | US | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| Employment Cost Index q/q | US | 0.8% | 0.9% | ||
| Unemployment Claims | US | 222K | 217K | ||
| Fri | 10:30pm | Non-Farm Employment Change | US | 108K | 147K |
| Unemployment Rate | US | 4.2% | 4.1% | ||
Source: forexfactory.com